MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf353ff3bf4520ca237b34084cec15e2a387c1c302ee15aefe5f779520393db4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 22c | 1,853$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.29 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 1c | 1,352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 1,115$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.99 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb9…4009backed Under | 62c | 622.34$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 593.56$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.95 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 37c | 592.13$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 48c | 524.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.59 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 64c | 458.9$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 390.43$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.82 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 214.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 191.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 26c | 185.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 151.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 17c | 131.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 74.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 68.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 61.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 26c | 58.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 62c | 38.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 65c | 31.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 68c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 78c | 22.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 54c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 16.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.