TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Sacramento State Hornets (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sacramento State Hornetsof Sacramento State Hornets, Idaho State Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,626 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sacramento State Hornets49c4,001$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.5527947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals49c1,967$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.1112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Idaho State Bengals53c1,015$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.0974649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Idaho State Bengals49c468.94$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.695,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Idaho State Bengals54c220.29$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9630853.2%164 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Idaho State Bengals54c121.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.61,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Idaho State Bengals54c111.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.034,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Sacramento State Hornets49c87.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.751,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Idaho State Bengals54c64.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.749849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Sacramento State Hornets47c63.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8221937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Idaho State Bengals52c62.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.672,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Idaho State Bengals33c59.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.342,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Idaho State Bengals54c45.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.789947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Idaho State Bengals54c45.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.623850%19 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Sacramento State Hornets48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.167561.3%46 W · 29 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74fe…8243backed Idaho State Bengals49c24.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98952.8%47 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Idaho State Bengals54c22.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.032642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sacramento State Hornets46c22.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.924,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Sacramento State Hornets46c21.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7482846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.