TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Idaho State Bengals vs. Sacramento State Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sacramento State Hornetsof Idaho State Bengals, Sacramento State Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets55c6,660$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.835,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Idaho State Bengals49c6,367$3,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.361,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Sacramento State Hornets52c3,810$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.0337441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Idaho State Bengals48c3,304$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.024245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Idaho State Bengals44c3,158$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.5831837.7%120 W · 198 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Sacramento State Hornets54c2,332$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.172259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Idaho State Bengals49c1,994$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.0310448.1%50 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Sacramento State Hornets75c1,865$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.371,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Sacramento State Hornets49c1,688$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.7984147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Idaho State Bengals44c1,675$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.182,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked Sacramento State Hornets50c1,511$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.1810244.1%45 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho State Bengals43c1,354$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.333,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sacramento State Hornets50c1,208$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.8112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sacramento State Hornets51c978.28$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.362,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Sacramento State Hornets56c845.03$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.292,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Idaho State Bengals39c724.91$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9961446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Idaho State Bengals49c693.68$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.989850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Idaho State Bengals51c635.39$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.931,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Idaho State Bengals45c548.91$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4777142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Idaho State Bengals32c520.41$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1187047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sacramento State Hornets72c496.59$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.484,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Sacramento State Hornets51c468.66$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.161,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Idaho State Bengals47c421.82$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.261,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho State Bengals40c405.85$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.342,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Idaho State Bengals47c390.73$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1881528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8487…a68bbacked Idaho State Bengals51c388.73$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Sacramento State Hornets46c379.35$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.8816436%59 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Sacramento State Hornets53c374.07$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.8116253.1%86 W · 76 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Idaho State Bengals48c320.31$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7555840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Sacramento State Hornets50c300.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0562140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Idaho State Bengals47c299.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Sacramento State Hornets50c297.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.669151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Idaho State Bengals9c291.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.694,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Sacramento State Hornets49c291.43$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6372248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sacramento State Hornets51c267.18$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.942,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Idaho State Bengals40c249.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.57346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Idaho State Bengals47c210.91$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1383350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Idaho State Bengals48c203.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.69347.3%44 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6249…cee9backed Sacramento State Hornets46c200.56$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Idaho State Bengals53c199.24$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.893247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Idaho State Bengals47c198.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.181,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Idaho State Bengals51c198.25$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1157448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Sacramento State Hornets53c187.03$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9111257.1%64 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Sacramento State Hornets50c131.04$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9626550.6%134 W · 131 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Idaho State Bengals50c118.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.414,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Sacramento State Hornets55c102.1$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9993447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Idaho State Bengals49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4949157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sacramento State Hornets50c92.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.095,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Sacramento State Hornets51c90.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4813956.8%79 W · 60 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Idaho State Bengals48c85.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.981,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6483…750abacked Idaho State Bengals48c79.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.068834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Sacramento State Hornets54c76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9671655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca1…5446backed Sacramento State Hornets60c74.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Idaho State Bengals48c62.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9748551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Idaho State Bengals48c60.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8324340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Sacramento State Hornets52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6921937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Sacramento State Hornets53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.516755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x839f…5f1fbacked Idaho State Bengals50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Sacramento State Hornets49c46.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6819348.7%94 W · 99 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Sacramento State Hornets52c42.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5620834.6%72 W · 136 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Idaho State Bengals51c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2239050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Idaho State Bengals26c39.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0419522.1%43 W · 152 L-36.3wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Idaho State Bengals47c38.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1892246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Idaho State Bengals52c38.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Idaho State Bengals51c37.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.216858.8%40 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Idaho State Bengals50c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1643053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Sacramento State Hornets48c30.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7929954.2%162 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x396a…f2ffbacked Sacramento State Hornets49c30.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.482147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Idaho State Bengals44c29.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0913845.7%63 W · 75 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Idaho State Bengals48c28.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861244.9%275 W · 337 L+1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Sacramento State Hornets52c27.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4417945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Sacramento State Hornets50c24.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3160954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…fb49backed Sacramento State Hornets51c22.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.182035%7 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ec…8debbacked Sacramento State Hornets52c22.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.945657.1%32 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Idaho State Bengals51c21.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.152642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Sacramento State Hornets56c21.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6169350.4%349 W · 344 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Idaho State Bengals48c21.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.472,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Idaho State Bengals47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Sacramento State Hornets53c20.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6425946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Sacramento State Hornets57c20.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5918557.8%107 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.