Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc4f62ededfc8960273cf0e757ddecb62d0748bcce136254534a942a73a06c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PEC Zwolleof AFC Ajax, PEC Zwolle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PEC Zwolle | 73c | 4,007$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.91 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 2,374$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.82 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed PEC Zwolle | 69c | 2,300$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AFC Ajax | 6c | 1,166$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed AFC Ajax | 34c | 147.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 135$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked AFC Ajax | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AFC Ajax | 17c | 101.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked AFC Ajax | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked PEC Zwolle | 69c | 71.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked AFC Ajax | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed AFC Ajax | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked AFC Ajax | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked AFC Ajax | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed PEC Zwolle | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked PEC Zwolle | 69c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed PEC Zwolle | 77c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed PEC Zwolle | 72c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed PEC Zwolle | 78c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)this page
- PEC Zwolle vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PEC Zwolle vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Under won
- PEC Zwolle vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Under won
- PEC Zwolle vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Under won
- PEC Zwolle vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)PEC Zwolle won
- Spread: PEC Zwolle (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: PEC Zwolle (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.