MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcba3188561cbb3f5c2a0269b94983a61039552a7b75feec0cb44667449129b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 2,501$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,215$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 1,043$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 893.96$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 599.84$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 574$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 29c | 375.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 33c | 300$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 221.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 214.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 71c | 151.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 40c | 90.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 72c | 51.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Under | 30c | 37.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.