MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759d2c9834527412daabc827391976838f65a5ca07a1b6198ef29d89789cbb35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 55c | 4,592$2,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.44 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 2,750$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,299$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.39 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 1,187$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 1,174$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.34 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,112$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 33c | 1,081$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 39c | 860.4$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.59 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 55c | 727$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.15 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 45c | 477.52$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 325.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 225.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Over | 44c | 175.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 173.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 54c | 114.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 112.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…fc50backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 71c | 53.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 44c | 37.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 48c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 56c | 21.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 75c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.