MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2170c16b0277207d1c0f208688bbe13cbd1d99cf1c2ff9d3cbf6857b951f2a9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 1,842$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 1,181$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.59 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 53c | 1,051$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 1,021$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Over | 3c | 498$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 65c | 403.28$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 329.1$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 35c | 307$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.55 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 55c | 272.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 36c | 224$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 46c | 184$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 149$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 110.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 99.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 38c | 87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 65c | 72.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 63.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 49c | 55.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 49.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 35c | 49.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 51c | 46.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 63c | 43.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 48c | 40.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 27c | 39.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 37.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 41c | 32.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 26.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 56c | 24.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…e658backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 64c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 64c | 19.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.