MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e39711203508521c2ff36702199f89c54409d2270f2ff71d2b95699b204df73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 3,224$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,740$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 1,099$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.37 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 1,083$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 1,022$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Over | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 754.6$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 601.22$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 57c | 533.61$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.02 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 58c | 489.41$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.86 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 58c | 489.41$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.86 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 40c | 400.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 307.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 279.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 275.91$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 242.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 235.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 51c | 197.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 182.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 105$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 88.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 47c | 83.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 59c | 66.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 53c | 65.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 47c | 53.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 72c | 53.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 49c | 52.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 48c | 48.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 47c | 46.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 47c | 45.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 43.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 47c | 42.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 53c | 37.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 54c | 34.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 47c | 26.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 43c | 26.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 49c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.