TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,210 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers70c6,394$4,496 inWon+$1,898.5210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays29c3,762$1,082 inLost-$1,082.073,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays32c1,918$614 inLost-$613.651,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays29c537.14$156 inLost-$156.3212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers74c327$242 inWon+$85.388,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays26c321$83 inLost-$83.468,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays43c250$108 inLost-$107.51,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Detroit Tigers55c197.39$108 inWon+$89.3929331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays44c157.68$70 inLost-$69.739,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers68c148.29$101 inWon+$47.692,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers69c99$68 inWon+$30.694,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers75c80$60 inWon+$20.45,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays28c71.43$20 inLost-$203,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Toronto Blue Jays29c68.97$20 inLost-$2063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays45c59.14$27 inLost-$26.586,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed Detroit Tigers52c50.08$26 inWon+$24.0417749.7%88 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers67c31.95$21 inWon+$10.65,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.