MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe24d1a0898cffbc31d14ef9a2b005e1a2f831fe52dc93eec92d6d9de47d5af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 40,000$20,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,199.97 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 48c | 30,246$14,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,518.08 | 269 | 49.4%133 W · 136 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…0182backed Over | 52c | 17,250$8,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,954.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 11,197$5,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,779.67 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 48c | 11,011$5,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.06 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 54c | 3,683$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.43 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 3,190$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.58 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 50c | 2,611$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.73 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,829$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.9 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 46c | 1,259$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.3 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 51c | 1,184$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.67 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 1,071$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.21 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 900$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Over | 48c | 499.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Under | 47c | 408.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 190.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc098…01bebacked Over | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…edb8backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6180…b73ebacked Over | 50c | 57.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…1698backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4316…7a37backed Under | 52c | 44.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Under | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…c839backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…aa7fbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…a9e5backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…d162backed Over | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3431…1a4ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Red Sox vs. YankeesYankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.