MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8081e33768327db1966d60122db0cc963afbeac08e02f86db05d19dbfc82c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae0f…f647backed New York Yankees | 46c | 10,968$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 7,955$4,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.35 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 5,828$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.98 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 3,015$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.25 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 3,006$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.86 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked New York Yankees | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 2,114$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.6 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…9ae1backed New York Yankees | 46c | 1,843$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.85 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 908.17$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.76 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 600$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 592$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.21 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed New York Yankees | 44c | 294$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked New York Yankees | 42c | 292.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 262.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked New York Yankees | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed New York Yankees | 36c | 182.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…a6e2backed New York Yankees | 45c | 181.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed New York Yankees | 47c | 151.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed New York Yankees | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…47f3backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 120.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed New York Yankees | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…e61cbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 391 | 60.4%236 W · 155 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed New York Yankees | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed New York Yankees | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed New York Yankees | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed New York Yankees | 46c | 54.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…2c03backed New York Yankees | 44c | 54.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked New York Yankees | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 44.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed New York Yankees | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed New York Yankees | 47c | 39.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Red Sox vs. YankeesYankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.