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Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rublevof Rublev, Rinderknech
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x081e…f76ebacked Rublev53c4,061$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.571,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Rinderknech47c3,196$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.728350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Rublev55c1,957$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.181,27756.6%723 W · 554 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Rinderknech55c1,800$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9122553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Rublev54c1,274$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.341,12542.8%482 W · 643 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Rinderknech46c1,141$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.034,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Rinderknech45c1,120$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50411045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Rublev54c806.83$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9646553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rinderknech46c694.3$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.931,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rublev45c506.81$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.957,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Rublev55c501.04$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0460641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Rublev55c495.31$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.8968350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Rinderknech50c360.56$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809453.2%50 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b8…632abacked Rinderknech51c285.77$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.114344.1%63 W · 80 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Rinderknech47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.535040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Rublev58c245.84$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3995742.1%403 W · 554 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Rinderknech45c234.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6620043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Rinderknech47c150.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.971,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Rinderknech50c141.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7068139.1%266 W · 415 L-30.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55fc…8b73backed Rinderknech47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…eda7backed Rinderknech47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041846.2%193 W · 225 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1424…4f78backed Rinderknech47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012843%55 W · 73 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7b…9716backed Rublev52c96.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.346134.4%21 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa677…9beabacked Rublev71c91.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.553234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…ecbfbacked Rinderknech47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f7b…20bbbacked Rublev54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.075345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Rinderknech50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Rublev44c68.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.448639.5%34 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d8…849abacked Rinderknech48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Rinderknech48c61.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.455641.2%229 W · 327 L-2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed Rublev54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5625544.3%113 W · 142 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Rinderknech47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,44051.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L+9.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Rublev51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.512451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a5…80d4backed Rublev54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.331853.5%170 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Rublev56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6425352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6c…3aadbacked Rublev44c42.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e78…8bb1backed Rinderknech47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203050%15 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Rinderknech51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc990…80bbbacked Rinderknech53c38.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.532356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Rinderknech52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Rublev49c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.417,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb672…456fbacked Rublev56c30.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.362962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Rinderknech45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.518020.6%37 W · 143 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Rinderknech48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.425546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6076…13dfbacked Rublev54c28.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Rublev49c24.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.722646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.