Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac02d16939161432f8826ff0e4b3bec57d44def9fa667d0ef65f169da9683b7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,841$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.59 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 48c | 634.24$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.69 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 537.29$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 500.89$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 48c | 451.16$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.59 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 402.08$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 58c | 345.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.47 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 46c | 342.62$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 296$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 273.13$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 264.1$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 35c | 262.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 235.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 232.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 205.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 195.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 192.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 53c | 188.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 64c | 186.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 178.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 177.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 47c | 168.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 45c | 167.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 161.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 25c | 158.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 150.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 48c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 42c | 146.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 49c | 143.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 143.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked No | 58c | 138.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 130.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 118.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 36c | 113.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 113.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 109.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 56c | 109.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 102.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed No | 52c | 102.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 99.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 36c | 97.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 34c | 93.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 57c | 85.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 69c | 85.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 63c | 84.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 60c | 84.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 36c | 83.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 44c | 75.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 75.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 46c | 72.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 70.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 44c | 68.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 59c | 67.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 50c | 67.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 65c | 61.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 61.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 50c | 60.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 60.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 57.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 30c | 54.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 53.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 55c | 52.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 51.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 47.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 46.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 32c | 45.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 49c | 44.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 43.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 35c | 43.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 34c | 43.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 44c | 43.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 58c | 43.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 42.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 42.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 66c | 40.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 67c | 40.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 44c | 39.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 42c | 38.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 59c | 37.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 33c | 36.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.