Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabebde5f53fc6230130b394fd7654b848bc6655751e3ceacbbf1dbf0d49d5e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 899.49$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 27c | 699.61$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 415.21$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 32c | 400.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 54c | 372$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 334.9$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 311.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 268.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 43c | 261.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 261$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 34c | 258.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 218.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 206.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 46c | 202.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 185.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 172.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 170.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 168.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 162.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 40c | 160.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 158.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 157.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 34c | 153.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 153.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 152.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 35c | 141.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 51c | 139.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 129.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 28c | 128$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 46c | 123.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 65c | 119.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 36c | 113.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 109.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 106.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 35c | 106.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 101.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 66c | 100.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 95.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 38c | 93.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 68c | 93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 92.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 88.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 86.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 40c | 82.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 36c | 81.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 77.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 65c | 76.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 27c | 73.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 73c | 72.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 70.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 38c | 68.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…dcd3backed Yes | 28c | 63.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 38c | 62.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 67c | 55.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 54.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 73c | 54.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 28c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 59c | 49.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 36c | 48.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 47.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 46.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 46.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 46.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.