South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac039a8ac9e546fc0b79ba072a044d11a4eff21a22af7c38cefaa84371263991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 18c | 2,016$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.58 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 1,996$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.41 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 1,694$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.99 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 27c | 724.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.43 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 647.06$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a57ebacked Over | 15c | 612.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 429.75$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 427.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 79c | 368.84$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 73c | 314.58$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 79c | 251.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a7…bfa2backed Over | 20c | 205.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 76c | 178.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 74c | 160.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 74c | 160.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 73c | 146.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 29c | 115.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…e55ebacked Over | 20c | 112.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 74c | 111.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 111.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 74c | 111.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 73c | 104.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 73c | 104.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 76c | 87.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 74c | 72.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 74c | 72.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 71c | 69.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 61.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 76c | 61.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Under | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4b…b4ebbacked Under | 63c | 54.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Under | 79c | 52.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 75c | 28.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 68c | 24.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Under | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.