South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805cc978eb6b7408cb0d8f6a2dabbfa36e6687e79db18c2259180c461085ebde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Under | 50c | 14,206$7,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,130 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 9,798$5,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,449.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 43c | 7,306$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.15 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 4,649$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…eeb4backed Over | 56c | 2,785$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 44c | 2,337$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.55 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4178backed Under | 3c | 1,333$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 47c | 1,042$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Over | 46c | 996.97$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 879.77$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.5 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 53c | 676.27$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.65 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 51c | 661.87$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.98 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 620.58$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.49 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 537.77$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.4 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 52c | 373.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 342.21$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 326.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.95 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 60c | 325.05$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 255.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 51c | 220.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 51c | 220.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 51c | 220.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 220.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 51c | 220.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 51c | 220.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 51c | 212.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 48c | 189.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 60c | 163.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 47c | 143.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 47c | 143.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…6c90backed Over | 51c | 127.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 126.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…ad1cbacked Over | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Under | 45c | 94.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7549…9745backed Over | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 60c | 84.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 60c | 84.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 60c | 76.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Over | 60c | 76.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Over | 54c | 70.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…70bbbacked Over | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…5cb6backed Over | 48c | 65.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 50c | 63.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 49c | 59.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Under | 51c | 58.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a57ebacked Over | 35c | 57.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 46c | 54.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Over | 35c | 43.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 50c | 40.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 47c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 37.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…6d0dbacked Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Under | 50c | 35.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Over | 48c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked Under | 42c | 31.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 61c | 29.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…d92abacked Over | 64c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…ad22backed Over | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…08a7backed Over | 63c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Over | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.