NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2127e3f76f7cf2414b6a57ea8d45ddc7e0cc2a7fd26456acde41d65646f9f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Trail Blazers, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Spurs | 54c | 554.64$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.32 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 554$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spurs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Spurs | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 80.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Spurs | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Spurs | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Spurs | 56c | 44.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 42.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Spurs | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 22.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail BlazersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.