Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3108fd1065d4ddd7740377a4b34f44c93bbb7e6b0eb6c200b98dd9a0d9894d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCU Horned Frogsof Iowa State Cyclones, TCU Horned Frogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 19,608$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,607.82 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 8,052$3,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,945.55 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 6,141$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 1,974$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.41 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iowa State Cyclones | 42c | 1,638$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.61 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 1,370$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.8 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 1,300$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 1,197$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.45 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 784.31$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Iowa State Cyclones | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 331.14$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4850backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 251.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 250.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 148.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 147.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 27c | 66.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…be06backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 62.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9aa…089dbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 31.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed TCU Horned Frogs | 47c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 30.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 24.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…045abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-7.5)this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. TCU Horned FrogsTCU Horned Frogs won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 147.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.