Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac36b8518d1f190b2fad375c43403cb09351e0b162a8a4a4e84292cd9589184c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 77c | 10,014$7,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.36 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Yes | 22c | 6,865$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.3 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 72c | 1,951$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.28 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 29c | 1,624$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 240 | 47.5%114 W · 126 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 1,054$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.79 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 1,046$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.42 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 72c | 852$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 32c | 788.45$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.04 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 29c | 743.14$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 73c | 717.41$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Yes | 21c | 622$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 72c | 551$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 201 | 40.8%82 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 72c | 472.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 29c | 339.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 26c | 328$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 27c | 296.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 27c | 277.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…1ab6backed Yes | 30c | 234.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 21c | 224$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 72c | 206.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 9c | 203.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 216 | 56.9%123 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 29c | 137.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…2ebebacked Yes | 29c | 87.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c49…a3cebacked Yes | 28c | 71.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 67.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…9122backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…c20ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…5b7bbacked No | 72c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-31?No won
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.