Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac396688316c591556b4cbe78f8e81c9a46a937bb02c7dd18e566e1f41ad6946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 535.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 523.44$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 410.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 407.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 15c | 384.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 343.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 7c | 311.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 212.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 16c | 187.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 167.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 159.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,114 | 35.1%391 W · 723 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 137.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 122.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 121.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Yes | 10c | 109.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 44%73 W · 93 L | +15.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 12c | 93.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 71.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed Yes | 15c | 69.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 18c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 52.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1,321 | 75.9%1,003 W · 318 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.