TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,355 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x71d0…b73abacked No69c702.8$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.8710757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c584.24$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes57c400.39$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.225,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c357.79$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f8…1a89backed No37c275.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes62c241.76$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.725549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c217.54$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.492,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No75c215.64$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.032,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes36c211.92$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes44c203.82$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No77c202.27$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8422350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No54c193.67$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.123,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes25c183.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.281,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fe…43a7backed Yes30c179$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes43c174.54$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.71,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes65c159$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c156.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.17,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c154.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.764,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c143.42$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8c…2155backed Yes24c140.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.641942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No55c133.7$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.724,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No53c127.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes30c113.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes34c109.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.171,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No64c97.89$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.141,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes39c93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8425038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c90.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes21c82.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes34c81.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.191,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes29c80.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes37c79.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes19c78.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.941,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No72c78.49$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.22070%14 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes44c76.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.734337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes33c75.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.125935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb460…6424backed Yes77c68.91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.943053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes74c68.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No54c67.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6718235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c27…ee11backed Yes30c66.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.293458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No51c65.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.762,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No50c65.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.461,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c64.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No65c64.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.346667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c64.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.585,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes58c63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1825560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes37c62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c57.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c53.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes38c53.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.272,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No57c53.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.951,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1aa…7429backed Yes41c53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.299426.6%25 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes37c50.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1284930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes28c49.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3617744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c47.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No32c44.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes26c41.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes41c41.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes40c41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No62c39.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43df…8d83backed No79c37.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No52c37.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No56c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.341,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes63c35.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2715152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4089…e7b2backed Yes32c34.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes49c33.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No59c31.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No67c29.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No59c28.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…9379backed Yes41c27.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcb…bf61backed No74c27.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982475%18 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c26.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes39c26.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.084060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes57c24.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.671,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be9…446ebacked Yes45c24.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No51c23.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.059262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xabea…3257backed No67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156473.4%47 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No66c22.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6511258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked No57c22.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5314954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.741,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No65c19.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf713…fdebbacked No79c19.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No58c19.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.085752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No69c18.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.725,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No74c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No63c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6812758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No75c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No79c15.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.262,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a1…7a23backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103384.8%28 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick79cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.