TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,347 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c707.43$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.788,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes35c636.64$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4865749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes40c608.23$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.544,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes48c492.76$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.281,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c297.89$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed No61c290.89$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.532962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c264.93$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No66c222.53$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No67c217.81$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes31c205.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.615,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes42c192.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.792,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes39c170$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c166.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.229,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No61c158.15$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.551,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes44c156.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.931,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No49c154.26$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9525049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes46c150.12$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.611,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes35c148$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.814953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No51c125$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.251,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c122.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c120.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.061,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No56c107.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5257038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes52c107.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5670741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c107$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.082,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4029953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.431,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes45c99.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.425038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No51c97.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0219052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No64c91.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.691,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No54c88.31$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.256,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes42c83.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No59c81.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.791,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes31c81.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.053,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No57c79.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.045,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3325935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes29c69.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes38c68.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6368645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No65c67.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.753262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c65.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.963,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes37c63.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c62.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes42c60.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.123,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed No66c60.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.233751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes39c59.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes40c59.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c59.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c27…ee11backed No58c55.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.463458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1aa…7429backed Yes36c54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.199426.6%25 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No61c50.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8984930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes40c50.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes40c50.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.123327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No59c49.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3482742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No60c47.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes41c46.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2366735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…7b51backed Yes53c45.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.022365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No62c42.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes49c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9718235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.621339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No55c39.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9711258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c38.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.164,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1531050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.321,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c0a7backed No64c35.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.842540%10 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.822,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.464,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.524434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3edb…65bbbacked No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.861266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No66c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed No49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.715915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes48c28.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes50c28.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes50c28.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.241,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c28.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes40c27.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.759262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes52c26.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.624060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c26.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No57c26.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No44c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.561,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.52,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a9…4182backed No52c23.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.499260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed No63c23.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.694344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No66c22.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.852,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No66c22.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.851,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes57c22.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0220358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0457264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No61c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.585162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.813134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c19.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.315,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.