MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3dc893467af6f3bb76337908748f521ccb1f2669e7c57bc73b7e35b2959b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 2,526$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.08 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 1,633$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.03 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 1,506$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 1,429$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.85 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 724$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 621.02$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.97 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…0cccbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 338.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…7d78backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 232.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…72a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 153.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Washington Nationals | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 84.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 63.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 55.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 33.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 32.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.