MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3ed9c0234c2c7509f3457dd398ad198d2d1332909ada9f739da35ac0e8c8df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 61c | 8,587$5,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,253.31 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 5,660$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.81 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 1,539$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…a9bebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 1,184$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.04 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 241.57$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros | 55c | 157.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 153.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6911backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 134.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 112.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 104.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Houston Astros | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 67.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 65.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 53.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 52.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Houston Astros | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 47.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 36.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Houston Astros | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 34.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Houston Astros | 49c | 34.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 33.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 33.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 28.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Houston Astros | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.