MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935e636e626636dc786353fd33b5832f74bf10b7a503b2e6740fec3bad0674e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Under | 47c | 4,071$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.58 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 3,950$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 1,341$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 1,250$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.5 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 53c | 1,094$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.09 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 47c | 1,016$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.59 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 53c | 837.35$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.55 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 47c | 744$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 734.46$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 611$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 51c | 456.9$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.27 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…5a26backed Under | 48c | 411.96$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 391.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 49c | 376.45$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 47c | 350$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 47c | 347.51$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 51c | 266$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 232.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 189.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 186.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 164.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Under | 47c | 101.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 58c | 66.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 63.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 47.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 43c | 44.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19d…146cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 43c | 35.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Under | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 28.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 57c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.