South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4981f5075957e41e319ed6f0c86279b2124b147e747791b835535ba2752730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,328$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.66 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 26c | 1,217$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 607.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…271ebacked Yes | 27c | 590$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 31c | 496.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 27c | 355.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 75c | 342.09$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 297.65$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 13c | 177.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 71c | 141.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 71c | 119.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 75c | 117.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 112.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 30c | 56.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 53.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea9…be41backed Yes | 27c | 41.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 31c | 40.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked No | 75c | 33.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…ca52backed No | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-02?Yes won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-12-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.