South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733f93180050ec21193c3c6874840b812e06b6845310f39200e4a0707a50f62e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 28c | 40,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 70c | 31,760$22,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,596.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 77c | 9,294$7,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.81 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 37c | 2,200$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.91 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 47c | 2,129$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.95 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 55c | 1,977$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 1,726$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 29c | 1,720$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.8 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…a7d5backed No | 62c | 1,654$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…5ce8backed Yes | 38c | 1,652$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 54c | 1,500$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 50c | 1,418$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.07 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 44c | 1,000$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.73 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 46c | 839.08$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.34 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 44c | 704.07$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.16 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 40c | 700.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 40c | 593$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.88 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 68c | 375$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 71c | 293.4$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes | 40c | 249.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 42c | 246.66$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 47c | 225$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 57c | 218.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 76c | 209.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 58c | 190.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 41c | 185$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 40c | 152.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…271ebacked Yes | 63c | 150.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 40c | 123.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 72c | 117.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 61c | 85.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…d70abacked Yes | 40c | 60.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…5593backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…c543backed Yes | 62c | 59.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked No | 34c | 59.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked No | 38c | 56.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 63c | 55.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 32c | 55.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…b035backed No | 39c | 50.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -9.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed No | 31c | 49.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…ab6cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 39c | 46.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 75c | 43.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 58c | 36.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 64c | 35.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…3217backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 68c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 42c | 29.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 39c | 27.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…ca52backed Yes | 40c | 26.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…ff4fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215f…a99abacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 78c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 61c | 16.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-02?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-12-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.