Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9a2c223dee458f7573ce3ca1c80daa7933119e5ec3b992c365de545b010db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Tundra Esports, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6111…4742backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 3,562$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.37 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 2,117$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.97 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 1,959$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 1,501$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.42 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 1,404$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.1 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…10bcbacked Virtus.pro | 56c | 878.67$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 833.75$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.85 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 660.92$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.08 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 391$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 197.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 189.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 181.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…bcd7backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 107.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Virtus.pro | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Virtus.pro | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…5922backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 97.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Virtus.pro | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 94.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Virtus.pro | 58c | 74.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 71.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ed…244abacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Virtus.pro | 52c | 55.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 43.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 40.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Virtus.pro | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Virtus.pro | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…ef91backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…25e7backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Virtus.pro | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ed12backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 27.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…b61cbacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 23.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…44f9backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.