MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacbe5198502d76b9849a88d301138ce6cc7a32e2482d3a782a9367ac99491124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 15,497$7,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,380.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 7,003$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.81 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 6,727$3,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.34 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 4,332$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.85 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,251$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.99 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…1b34backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 647.37$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 585$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 332.39$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 202$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 179.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 179.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 177.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 158.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 155.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 129.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 100.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 98.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 91.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 88.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 83.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 65.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 58.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 40.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 31.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.