MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe50a03c76666f5ea2e73cec3ef43414cf18cf5683d9cbd8b9a291048679a926e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 45c | 40,338$18,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,152.11 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 55c | 23,569$12,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,606.05 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 56c | 7,031$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.73 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 4,973$2,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 55c | 1,335$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.67 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 55c | 885$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.25 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 679.1$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 585$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.25 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 499.96$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.65 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 46c | 499.07$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.57 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 54c | 370.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 365$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 55c | 297.39$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 287.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 208.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 55c | 189.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 56c | 179$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 73c | 156$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 38c | 143$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 46c | 86.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 43c | 82.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 59c | 77.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 75.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 62c | 69.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 47.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 46.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…82dfbacked Under | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Over | 46c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 45c | 41.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 31.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 43c | 25.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.