Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd88f35813c7a75908fb92df5786a59b033b748bf6f0895cc151becbc50aaea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 545.29$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 296.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 249.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.79 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 47c | 245.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 233.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 52c | 193.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 27c | 127.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 123.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 38c | 121.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 119.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…28ecbacked No | 22c | 115.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 49c | 114.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 113.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 85.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 46c | 70.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 56c | 68.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 66.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 65c | 65.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 50c | 62.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 59.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 47c | 56.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 50c | 48.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 45.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 57c | 44.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 43.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 52c | 39.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 48c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 43c | 38.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 37.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…e7c8backed Yes | 68c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 35.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 48c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 67c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 52c | 28.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 42c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 56c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a654backed Yes | 51c | 20.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 63c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.