Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22d7bf2d9071cd40d1dc6c4b13a22b735ac267378c54a85fe51744d5bba3b6ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 574.56$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.65 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 76c | 380.22$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 251.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 149.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 136.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 126.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 121.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 107.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 89.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 81.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 35c | 75.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 65.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 53c | 62.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a654backed Yes | 44c | 62.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 24c | 57.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 44c | 55.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 38c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 62c | 49.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…abdcbacked No | 38c | 47.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 46.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 46c | 44.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 39.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 33c | 37.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 35c | 37.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 50c | 33.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 35c | 31.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 35c | 31.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 34c | 29.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 38c | 26.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.