Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace6750536e3a1fa509118489415a2eb69761c396c204894a1c868427ca31e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 15c | 888.84$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.11 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 23c | 349.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 29c | 293.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 212.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 200.47$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 18c | 136.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 127.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 19c | 109.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 72.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 26c | 70.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 78c | 69.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 72c | 64.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 58.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 25c | 55.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 46.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 41.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 74c | 40.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked No | 74c | 29.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.