Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9063d1534add725aab3a745b873c97ebc9f1db559c674b4b31d00fe0aa22a1aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 36c | 2,143$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.86 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 597.58$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 363.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 16c | 274.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 16c | 247.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 242.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 56c | 238.1$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 234$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 226.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 6c | 205.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 56c | 192.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 67c | 178.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 175.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 73c | 152$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 134$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 46c | 132$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 110.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 78.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 75.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 64.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 29c | 57.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 56.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 22c | 52.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…3574backed Yes | 45c | 51.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 49.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 46.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 80c | 43.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 43.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 42.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 43c | 35.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 78c | 34.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 40c | 33.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 39c | 29.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 24.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 17.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.