Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8c5a5b8bb167569cae69733314a1f5aa758f5e9dcc4a8edb5f11302f48201e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,612$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.33 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 13c | 2,494$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.97 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed Yes | 28c | 1,230$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 28c | 977.68$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.58 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…da45backed Yes | 15c | 674.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 13c | 653.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 649.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 603.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 551.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 527.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 10c | 433.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 407.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 26c | 357.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 276$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 269.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 232$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 214.57$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 206.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 25c | 185.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e96…4c6ebacked No | 53c | 184.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 165.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 22c | 137.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 29c | 122.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 90.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 75.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 36c | 72.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 71.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 18c | 70.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 70c | 61.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 57.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 52.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 49.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 45.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 43.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…88b9backed Yes | 38c | 43.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a4…9f6ebacked No | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 79c | 27.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 57c | 26.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 25.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.