Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad09c7bcc7098598461fee81a1b2b2dd055968a6ef913c7b6f04996fe9caacf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 9c | 4,420$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.78 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Under | 1c | 3,986$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 11c | 2,308$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.85 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 1,784$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.6 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 6c | 1,211$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +151%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 9c | 1,160$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 32c | 899.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 64c | 835.63$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.35 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 781.35$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.59 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 579.74$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.04 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 553.43$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.79 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 464.31$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.52 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 80c | 312$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +11.6wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 6c | 309.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 296$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +10.6wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…7e92backed Under | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 53c | 188.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 35c | 169.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 127.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 80c | 126.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +7.1wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 124.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 72.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 80c | 61.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 36c | 53.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 72c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 55c | 20.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 68c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.