Serie A · resolved market
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad1bacd002e358dd8b93735ba97c293e48218db3d15940a246ccb5cfa9c8814d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 10c | 29,773$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.81 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 10,059$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.63 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 19c | 9,098$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.08 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…5e52backed Yes | 19c | 8,400$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 7,928$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.62 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Yes | 19c | 4,688$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.78 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 10c | 4,405$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.87 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 20c | 2,637$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5981backed Yes | 19c | 1,208$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 1,084$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Yes | 8c | 682.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 11c | 552.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 20c | 476$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 18c | 473.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 19c | 392.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 80c | 360$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 6c | 339.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 168 | 19.6%33 W · 135 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 10c | 336.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 227 | 43.2%98 W · 129 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 218.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 6c | 195.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 8c | 185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 19c | 150.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Yes | 19c | 149.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…3638backed Yes | 9c | 145.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 19c | 144.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Yes | 10c | 142.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 80c | 140.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 9c | 130.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 8c | 125.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 10c | 115.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 20c | 97.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 19c | 95.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…92d8backed Yes | 19c | 75.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 19c | 69.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…abb1backed Yes | 19c | 52.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?this page
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.