MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad225aff03172b7adbf8a02abe1efe081af7292354914565e0e31a774b48da6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 57c | 8,757$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 6,957$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,965.65 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 57c | 3,275$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.75 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 43c | 2,504$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.34 | 1,408 | 48.8%687 W · 721 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 44c | 1,818$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 56c | 1,639$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.76 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 39c | 720.88$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.09 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 440.4$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.03 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 44c | 312.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.11 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Under | 57c | 258$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 56c | 229.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 227$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…e990backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Under | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 179.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 56c | 159.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Under | 57c | 132$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc098…01bebacked Over | 43c | 116.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 52c | 112.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 43c | 94.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…b1b6backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…291bbacked Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 44c | 30.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 76c | 29.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 55c | 21.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…d3b6backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Phillies vs. DodgersPhillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.