Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4764e2b8b66553c2059aa644cc10a4539e67cdcf96ad1db2c9a92d28d0ab53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 259.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 63c | 212.63$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 191.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 164.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 24c | 153.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 122.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 113.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 47c | 107.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 94.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 85.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 78.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 76.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…08a8backed Yes | 31c | 65.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 26c | 63.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 27c | 61.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 31c | 60.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 58c | 60.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 25c | 45.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…9cd3backed Yes | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 43.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 32c | 41.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 39.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 70c | 37.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 34c | 35.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 70c | 34.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 38c | 34.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 33.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.