Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3b5b404c7b5dbef268283e8e63037330c553bf6129a6658609fa29d792a0b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,021 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 768.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…d00bbacked Yes | 45c | 242.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 32c | 179.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 49c | 166.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 50c | 158.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 39c | 146.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 72c | 146.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 122.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 29c | 122.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 119.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 102.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 61c | 98.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 94.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 52c | 81.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 38c | 80.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 70.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 57c | 70.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 52c | 65.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 64.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 29c | 64.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 63.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 61c | 62.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 59.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 57.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 52.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 39c | 51.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 42c | 48.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked Yes | 75c | 40.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 40.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…08a8backed Yes | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 37.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 44c | 33.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 34c | 33.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 38c | 33.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 32.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 42c | 28.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 27.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 25.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 54c | 23.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 70c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 72c | 15.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 75c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.