MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4a1410f50392a0a9d698f9772578aac9a00461cc2b1f8ff9b7a826581d1d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4fd…748bbacked Over | 51c | 4,314$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 2,401$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 80c | 2,376$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.26 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…6003backed Under | 48c | 955.38$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 279.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 47c | 239$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…fd6cbacked Over | 50c | 183.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 55c | 146$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 58c | 135.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1164…f58bbacked Under | 55c | 96.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 52c | 79.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 54c | 58.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Over | 58c | 27.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 58c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 49c | 24.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.