MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c9633a52b2613202083691b1845e2ff02ed82fc110237a1e77cff823983292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 210,809$112,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,617.55 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 47c | 200,000$93,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,161.81 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Over | 45c | 30,000$13,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,499.99 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 46c | 12,000$5,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,480 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 54c | 11,972$6,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,464.91 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 9,293$4,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,971.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.25 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Under | 55c | 4,545$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 2,974$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.31 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 2,587$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 1,204$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 1,024$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 854$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 54c | 696.35$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.03 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 585$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 53c | 534.38$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.22 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 45c | 463$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 46c | 310$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 305$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 277.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 63c | 226$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 38c | 214$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 46c | 189.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.29 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 54c | 183.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 55c | 182.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 170.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 151$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 149.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Under | 53c | 126.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 55c | 103.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 96.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 70c | 94.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 53c | 93.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 73.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca2…0762backed Over | 70c | 72.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 49c | 70.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 38.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…13e5backed Over | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 29.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 55c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 52c | 26.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f5…97b2backed Under | 55c | 23.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 51c | 19.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.