NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5c0a4d79381921963720ea1e192f93343e6ae840d50b6ae5364a48029e039e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Stars, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Stars | 24c | 5,096$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.43 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Sabres | 70c | 2,250$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +689.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Stars | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Stars | 3c | 1,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Sabres | 67c | 1,000$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sabres | 64c | 680.7$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.86 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Stars | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…b80ebacked Sabres | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Sabres | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sabres | 53c | 118.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Stars | 47c | 118.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Stars | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Sabres | 63c | 94.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Sabres | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7d3cbacked Sabres | 70c | 80.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabres | 58c | 77.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Sabres | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Stars | 37c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…4410backed Sabres | 69c | 71.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Sabres | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Stars | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Stars | 38c | 52.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Sabres | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Stars | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…dad2backed Sabres | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Stars | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sabres | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Stars | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Sabres | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Stars | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Sabres | 62c | 33.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Stars | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Sabres | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Stars | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Sabres | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Sabres | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabres | 62c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sabres | 63c | 20.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Sabres | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. StarsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.