Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad62dd550389c27e608bd6d7c2a9d398bec54de40cd53f07a93df85e58cf9297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 14c | 1,248$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…1365backed Yes | 2c | 714.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 27c | 566.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.62 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 470.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked No | 72c | 403.14$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 14c | 311.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 284.18$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 5c | 222.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 32c | 197.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 66c | 184.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 29c | 169.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 168.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 129.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 14c | 128.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 16c | 121.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e6abbacked Yes | 25c | 120.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 15c | 118.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 69c | 115.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 33c | 114.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 14c | 108.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 107.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 105.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 27c | 104.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 14c | 102.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…bfe7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 93.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 90.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes | 16c | 88.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 76c | 73.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 70c | 60.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 20c | 59.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb10…0e28backed Yes | 43c | 50.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 42.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 28c | 40.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 78c | 32.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 76c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 19.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 77c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 69c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.