Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed5f1410ad292538d1c0493551fbb32ce972ea6ed9284cba1abac0761a3e44e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,104$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…1631backed Yes | 1c | 1,051$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 15c | 754.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.14 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 599.4$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 15c | 590.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 54c | 437.9$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 375.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 363.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 20c | 350.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked No | 68c | 332.02$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 17c | 279.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 31c | 275.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 14c | 274.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 253$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 233.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 213.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 191.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 38c | 172.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 171$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 51c | 164.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Yes | 29c | 159.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 14c | 154.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 13c | 121.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 16c | 113.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 30c | 106.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 15c | 97.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 22c | 97.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked No | 18c | 92.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 91.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 16c | 90.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 86.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 80.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…d386backed No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 14c | 72.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 70.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…d406backed Yes | 16c | 69.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 67.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…bfe7backed Yes | 20c | 58.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 28c | 51.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 80c | 50.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 77c | 48.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 47.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 44.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…6096backed No | 37c | 42.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 31c | 32.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed No | 55c | 30.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 49c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…f5debacked Yes | 66c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 61c | 17.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 76c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.