TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,966 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes25c1,138$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.9823633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes24c854.92$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.4142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes74c573.29$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.0492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes25c565.37$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.5935233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c493.73$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.495,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c479.96$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.791,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c399.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.995073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes24c349.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0623823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No77c324.05$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.852,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes41c300.4$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.623225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c296$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.552,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb180…77c1backed Yes33c286.91$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+207.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No59c276$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.562,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c256.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.527,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No66c239.78$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c217.66$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No36c212.03$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.51,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes29c204.57$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.251,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No49c186.23$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7658422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes29c170.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3811737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No60c168.48$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c164.32$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No78c146.5$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes13c137.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.32429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes29c131.41$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9326738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c130.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.472,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x307f…c327backed Yes34c127$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes40c127$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.611,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c125.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.863,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0638…df07backed Yes34c123.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb14d…8f95backed Yes26c123.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.792524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes31c115.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3718038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c109.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No77c106.57$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3527376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes22c104.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.356825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes33c94.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.168748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes27c93.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6625725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c91.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.439,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No78c90.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5217066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes29c90.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c88.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes23c86.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6726533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes23c80.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.85635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No76c79.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7814671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes28c75.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3416030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc2a8…c784backed Yes31c74.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No76c73.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.38955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes30c71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.75648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb70a…0883backed No70c70.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.337866.7%52 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No76c70.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0522675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No73c66.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No79c65.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.551,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c55.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No54c54.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4575…198dbacked No73c53.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.942441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed No69c53.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb30…1631backed Yes63c52.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.26875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+140.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes49c51.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.161741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No77c50.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.075961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No79c50.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.712564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0241…bfe7backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No78c47.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2718272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6834…3e15backed No70c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No55c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1433561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x108f…7136backed Yes26c39.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.14841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc362…14a8backed Yes75c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.423275%24 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No76c37.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No80c37.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No71c34.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7515666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No71c34.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…7833backed No78c30.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.48650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c29.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No75c29.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No67c27.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.611,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No72c27.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5214666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No73c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1922945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No75c25.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No80c24.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.619772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07a…f97abacked No71c24.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3812717.3%22 W · 105 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes69c23.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.431,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c23.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No80c22.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.915155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9b…156cbacked No70c22.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.567050%35 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No70c20.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0293734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b7e…0b95backed No74c19.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.614566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No70c19.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7817570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe856…7347backed No77c19.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.012065%13 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick75cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No76c19.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6455538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…e40ebacked No77c19.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.593871.1%27 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d6…62a5backed No77c19.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.592075%15 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No76c18.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9211664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1542…ee9dbacked No75c17.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No78c14.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2112057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No78c12.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02cd…cedcbacked No79c12.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick78cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.