Mls · resolved market
Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad93d9b8b5a18e7b9a7b19fdecfded14103b6ddc17395f138220b26dc3cd2897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Galaxyof Houston Dynamo, Los Angeles Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 55c | 7,156$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,226.22 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Dynamo | 46c | 6,399$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.72 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 66c | 1,656$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.95 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Houston Dynamo | 34c | 971.37$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Houston Dynamo | 44c | 962.73$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.06 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Houston Dynamo | 36c | 800$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 60c | 545.24$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.56 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Dynamo | 42c | 430.59$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.85 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 47c | 293$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f22…1d6bbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Houston Dynamo | 41c | 126.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Houston Dynamo | 32c | 74.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Dynamo | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 58c | 59.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 68c | 52.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Houston Dynamo 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Houston Dynamo O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 0.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.