Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x078f80985e47720366e424c073b7574a5771e45946957fa4cbf4a5436c5a9de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 10c | 3,939$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.9 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 36c | 805.03$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 641$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.35 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 641$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.35 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 70c | 552.72$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 64c | 182.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 63c | 145$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 11c | 138.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 37c | 138$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 65c | 135.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…3d6fbacked Over | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 60c | 102.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 64c | 89.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 35c | 74.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 35c | 60.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 35c | 31.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Houston Dynamo 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Houston Dynamo O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 0.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.