Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad9908f9447773b95cb1b67baf207221082ad776e1fcc5185afbc83730f25781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 451.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 428.28$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 14c | 384.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 277.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 245.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 243.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 225.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 224.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 53c | 222.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 222.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 208.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 187.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 173.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 148.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 74c | 134.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 42c | 119.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…9642backed Yes | 55c | 111.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 27c | 107.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 92.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 72c | 68.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 38c | 62.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 59.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 54.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 61c | 49.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 45.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 69c | 44.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 55c | 42.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 63c | 42.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 61c | 25.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked Yes | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 74c | 17.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 64c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.