Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10cac009d7f11b76733bdd5abca346322ea26255773c3abdfd75d7e4962e850a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 593.3$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 465.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 436.8$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 418.68$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 298.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 238.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 223.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 216.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 200.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 187.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 174.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…3f75backed Yes | 43c | 161.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 53c | 157$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 156.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 155.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 153.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 121.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 117.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 105.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 101.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked No | 60c | 100.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 94.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…b36fbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…6710backed No | 55c | 79.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 67.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 52.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 52.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 44.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 43.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 42.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 40.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 29c | 39.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 35.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 35.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 40c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 70c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 26.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 61c | 24.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 23.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed No | 72c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.